Abstract:
When a train leaves a platform, knowing the carriage load (the number of passengers in each carriage) of this train will support train managers to guide passengers at the...Show MoreMetadata
Abstract:
When a train leaves a platform, knowing the carriage load (the number of passengers in each carriage) of this train will support train managers to guide passengers at the next platform to choose carriages to avoid congestion. This capacity has become critical since the onset of the pandemic. However, with the dynamicity of passengers and the speed of trains improved (about 3 minutes travel between stations) as well as the station stop period reduced (60–90 second per station), the real-time prediction is more challenging. This paper presents an intelligent system, which is developed in collaboration with Sydney Trains, for real-time predicting carriage load across a city passenger train network. The system comprises three innovations. First, a fuzzy time-matching method significantly improves prediction accuracy in the uncertain situations and allows noisy historical data to be used for training. Second, the LightGBM model is extended with an incremental learning scheme to make forecasting in real-time possible. Third, a new multi-stream learning strategy that merges data streams with similar concept drift patterns is pioneered to increase the amount of suitable training data while reducing generalization errors. A comprehensive suite of practical tests on real-world datasets demonstrates the merit of these solutions.
Published in: IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems ( Volume: 23, Issue: 9, September 2022)
Funding Agency:
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Hang Yu (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree from the University of Technology Sydney, Australia, in 2020. He is currently a member of the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney. He is also a Lecturer with the Faculty of Computer Engineering and Science, Shanghai University. He has published more than ten research articles in IEE...Show More
Hang Yu (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree from the University of Technology Sydney, Australia, in 2020. He is currently a member of the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney. He is also a Lecturer with the Faculty of Computer Engineering and Science, Shanghai University. He has published more than ten research articles in IEE...View more
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Jie Lu (Fellow, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree from Curtin University, Australia, in 2000. She is currently a Distinguished Professor and the Director of the Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. Her main research expertise is in fuzzy transfer learning, decision support systems, concept drift, and recommender systems. She has published six research books and 450 papers...Show More
Jie Lu (Fellow, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree from Curtin University, Australia, in 2000. She is currently a Distinguished Professor and the Director of the Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. Her main research expertise is in fuzzy transfer learning, decision support systems, concept drift, and recommender systems. She has published six research books and 450 papers...View more
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Anjin Liu (Member, IEEE) received the B.I.T. degree (Hons.) from The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia, in 2012. He was a Post-Doctoral Research Associate with the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia. His research interests include concept drift detection, adaptive data stream learning, multi-str...Show More
Anjin Liu (Member, IEEE) received the B.I.T. degree (Hons.) from The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia, in 2012. He was a Post-Doctoral Research Associate with the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia. His research interests include concept drift detection, adaptive data stream learning, multi-str...View more
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Bin Wang is currently pursuing the dual Ph.D. degree with the School of Information Science and Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, China, and the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. His current research interests include time series forecasting and deep learning.
Bin Wang is currently pursuing the dual Ph.D. degree with the School of Information Science and Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, China, and the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. His current research interests include time series forecasting and deep learning.View more
Operations Analysis and Modeling Department, Sydney Trains, Haymarket, NSW, Australia
Ruimin Li received the Ph.D. degree from Monash University. She is currently a Senior Manager at the Planning Analysis and Modeling Department, Sydney Trains, Australia.
Ruimin Li received the Ph.D. degree from Monash University. She is currently a Senior Manager at the Planning Analysis and Modeling Department, Sydney Trains, Australia.View more
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Guangquan Zhang (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree in applied mathematics from Curtin University, Australia, in 2001. He is currently an Associate Professor and the Director of the Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligent (DeSI) Research Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. He has authored five monographs, five textbooks, and 470 papers, including 22...Show More
Guangquan Zhang (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree in applied mathematics from Curtin University, Australia, in 2001. He is currently an Associate Professor and the Director of the Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligent (DeSI) Research Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. He has authored five monographs, five textbooks, and 470 papers, including 22...View more
Contents Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Hang Yu (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree from the University of Technology Sydney, Australia, in 2020. He is currently a member of the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney. He is also a Lecturer with the Faculty of Computer Engineering and Science, Shanghai University. He has published more than ten research articles in IEEE Transactions. His research interests include streaming data mining, concept drift, and fuzzy systems.
Hang Yu (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree from the University of Technology Sydney, Australia, in 2020. He is currently a member of the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney. He is also a Lecturer with the Faculty of Computer Engineering and Science, Shanghai University. He has published more than ten research articles in IEEE Transactions. His research interests include streaming data mining, concept drift, and fuzzy systems.View more
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Jie Lu (Fellow, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree from Curtin University, Australia, in 2000. She is currently a Distinguished Professor and the Director of the Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. Her main research expertise is in fuzzy transfer learning, decision support systems, concept drift, and recommender systems. She has published six research books and 450 papers in IEEE Transactions and other journals and conferences. She has completed over 20 Australian Research Council Discovery Grants and other research projects. She is an IFSA Fellow and an Australian Laureate Fellow. She serves as the Editor-In-Chief for Knowledge-Based Systems (Elsevier) and the International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems (Atlantis). She has delivered 25 keynote speeches at international conferences and chaired ten international conferences.
Jie Lu (Fellow, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree from Curtin University, Australia, in 2000. She is currently a Distinguished Professor and the Director of the Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. Her main research expertise is in fuzzy transfer learning, decision support systems, concept drift, and recommender systems. She has published six research books and 450 papers in IEEE Transactions and other journals and conferences. She has completed over 20 Australian Research Council Discovery Grants and other research projects. She is an IFSA Fellow and an Australian Laureate Fellow. She serves as the Editor-In-Chief for Knowledge-Based Systems (Elsevier) and the International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems (Atlantis). She has delivered 25 keynote speeches at international conferences and chaired ten international conferences.View more
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Anjin Liu (Member, IEEE) received the B.I.T. degree (Hons.) from The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia, in 2012. He was a Post-Doctoral Research Associate with the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia. His research interests include concept drift detection, adaptive data stream learning, multi-stream learning, machine learning, and big data analytics.
Anjin Liu (Member, IEEE) received the B.I.T. degree (Hons.) from The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia, in 2012. He was a Post-Doctoral Research Associate with the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia. His research interests include concept drift detection, adaptive data stream learning, multi-stream learning, machine learning, and big data analytics.View more
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Bin Wang is currently pursuing the dual Ph.D. degree with the School of Information Science and Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, China, and the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. His current research interests include time series forecasting and deep learning.
Bin Wang is currently pursuing the dual Ph.D. degree with the School of Information Science and Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, China, and the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. His current research interests include time series forecasting and deep learning.View more
Operations Analysis and Modeling Department, Sydney Trains, Haymarket, NSW, Australia
Ruimin Li received the Ph.D. degree from Monash University. She is currently a Senior Manager at the Planning Analysis and Modeling Department, Sydney Trains, Australia.
Ruimin Li received the Ph.D. degree from Monash University. She is currently a Senior Manager at the Planning Analysis and Modeling Department, Sydney Trains, Australia.View more
Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligence Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Guangquan Zhang (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree in applied mathematics from Curtin University, Australia, in 2001. He is currently an Associate Professor and the Director of the Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligent (DeSI) Research Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. He has authored five monographs, five textbooks, and 470 papers, including 225 refereed international journal articles. He has been awarded nine Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project, an ARC QEII Fellowship in 2005, and many other research grants. His research interests include fuzzy modeling in machine learning and data analytics. He has served on editorial boards for several international journals and a guest editor of eight special issues for IEEE Transactions and other international journals.
Guangquan Zhang (Member, IEEE) received the Ph.D. degree in applied mathematics from Curtin University, Australia, in 2001. He is currently an Associate Professor and the Director of the Decision Systems and e-Service Intelligent (DeSI) Research Laboratory, Australian Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia. He has authored five monographs, five textbooks, and 470 papers, including 225 refereed international journal articles. He has been awarded nine Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project, an ARC QEII Fellowship in 2005, and many other research grants. His research interests include fuzzy modeling in machine learning and data analytics. He has served on editorial boards for several international journals and a guest editor of eight special issues for IEEE Transactions and other international journals.View more
