5 TECH NO-OPTIMISM, EXAGGERATIONS, AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS

This book has only modest goals: to remind us that success is only one of the outcomes of our ceaseless quest for invention; that failure can follow initial acceptance; that the bold dreams of market dominance may remain unrealized; and that even after generations of (sometimes intensifying) efforts, we may not be any closer to the commercial applications first envisaged decades ago. And what is true about the past is, despite recent claims to the contrary, likely to be repeated in the future. This closing chapter provides some factual correctives to visions of the ever-faster progress of invention that are now detailed in best-selling books, and will deconstruct hyperbolic claims that now accompany so many announcements of recent advances achieved during this supposedly unrivaled era of innovation. This cautionary attitude should be self-evident to any diligent student of modern technical advances—and so should be the basic attendant lessons.