A computational cardiopulmonary physiology simulator accurately predicts individual patient responses to changes in mechanical ventilator settings

We present new results validating the capability of a high-fidelity computational simulator to accurately predict the responses of individual patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome to changes in mechanical ventilator settings. 26 pairs of data-points comprising arterial blood gasses collected before and after changes in inspiratory pressure, PEEP, FiO2, and I:E ratio from six mechanically ventilated patients were used for this study. Parallelized global optimization algorithms running on a high-performance computing cluster were used to match the simulator to each initial data point. Mean absolute percentage errors between the simulator predicted values of PaO2 and PaCO2 and the patient data after changing ventilator parameters were 10.3% and 12.6%, respectively. Decreasing the complexity of the simulator by reducing the number of independent alveolar compartments reduced the accuracy of its predictions. Clinical Relevance— These results provide further evidence that our computational simulator can accurately reproduce patient responses to mechanical ventilation, highlighting its usefulness as a clinical research tool.