Geospatial least-cost study for on and off-grid electrification to achieve universal electricity access in Zambia by 2030

The rapidly growing population and economy in Zambia create a strong incentive for electrification. In its Vision 2030 statement, the Zambian government targets universal access to electricity by 2030. This calls for a least-cost planning exercise to avoid excessive expenses. Based on two country-wide geospatial optimizations, an investment plan is proposed. The first optimization analyses population density to filter out sparsely populated areas for individual supply solutions. The second optimization compares grid extensions and mini-grids, based on a load forecast and an LCOE comparison of the shortest span network or renewable mini-grid solution per village across the country. The result is a least-cost study of MV grid extension feeders and areas for off-grid electrification. To mitigate the modelling limits, four alternative scenarios are analysed to project different policy and technology choices. The output of the study acts as input for the electrification strategy in Zambia.