How Does Movie Production Determine Box Office? Tests of Mediation and Moderation Effects

The major aim of this study is to investigate the mechanism and pathway within the relationship between movie production and box office. Previous studies have identified the production of a movie’s effect on box office, but they cannot explain the process through which such effects come about. Drawing on methods from social sciences, we propose that distribution quality has the potential to play as a mediator or moderator between movie production and box office. The empirical study is based on a combined dataset from movie website, professional financial database and social media. We develop several models, and the results reveal that with other influential factors controlled, the movie production’s effect on box office is largely mediated by distribution quality. Our findings also suggest that the movie production’s effect on box office varies across different distribution qualities. Good distribution quality can enlarge the magnitude of production. These results extend the knowledge on the factors that influence a movie’s box office and provide implications for successful movie formation in movie industry. (Abstract)