Long-Term Electricity Demand Forecast Using Multivariate Regression and End-Use Method: A Study Case of Maluku-Papua Electricity System

One of the most important stages in electric power system planning is load forecasting. An accurate demand forecast model is required to create the most optimal plan. Long-term demand forecasts are developed in this study using regression and end-use models. Simulation is carried out to determine the load demand of the Maluku-Papua system through 2050. The variables that have the greatest influence on demand forecasting, according to data analysis, are gross regional domestic product (GRDP), population, electrification ratio, and electricity price. The electricity demand in Maluku-Papua is expected to rise by 5.7% in the business as usual (BaU) scenario and 6.7% in the High scenario. The peak load is expected to increase by 5.6% in the BaU scenario and 6.5% in the High scenario. Furthermore, the results of the demand forecast can be used to determine policies and the planning of the electric power system.