Monitoring the COVID-19 Situation in Thailand

The real-time reproduction number (R
_t
) of COVID19 in 77 provinces of Thailand during January-May 2020 are obtained by fitting a modified SEIR model to the actual data reported by the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MoPH). The spread of COVID-19 in Thailand is the most rapid in March 2020, when the number of daily new confirmed cases (DNCC) rises to above 100 cases per day. During this period, the calculated R
_t
is above 3. At the beginning of April 2020 following the lockdown, the calculated R
_t
drops sharply to below 1 and the number of DNCC decays progressively until it reaches a single digit in mid-May 2020. The model is also used to forecast the COVID-19 situation of every province in Thailand under different scenarios. It is scheduled to automatically re-fit to new data reported daily by MoPH so that R
_t
and the forecast results keep the users up-to-date in near real-time.