Impact of the Utilization of Heat Pumps for Buildings Heating in the Italian Power Market

The present paper aims at assessing what would happen if a share of buildings heat demand switches from natural gas to electricity by using heat pumps. The objective is to assess which is the optimal share to switch in order to minimize carbon emissions. A bid stack model (BISM) is employed to perform a hourly simulation of the electricity market, by determining market price, plants generation, fuel consumption and carbon emissions. A scenario analysis is performed in terms of the coefficient of performance of heat pumps. By running the simulations, the impact of different scenarios is analyzed in terms of primary energy consumption, CO₂emissions and power price, as well as the optimal market share of the heat pumps is established. Results show that the Italian electricity market allows a penetration of the heat pumps for buildings heating in the range of 29%-57% for COP values between 2 and 4.