Simulation for Risk Assessment in Product Development

It is very important to assess the impact of risk on decisions during the development of products or systems. The traditional way tends to make predictions quantitatively for the product design and manufacture phases but not to extend them to the service phase. This research presents a novel application of simulation to modeling the whole life cycle of a product and imitating the behavior and characteristics of products in the future use. Through modeling, a comparison of the products with and without new features is made, and the risks and benefits from the new features are quantified and assessed. The model is applied to a refrigeration system with new features called ELIMA, showing that it can be used to help managers in risk-assessing and decision-making for the product development.