Similarity and Disparity of China's Home Appliances' Diffusion Trajectory in Urban Area

Washing machine, refrigerator and color TV set, representing China's traditional home appliances, have got rapid diffusion in urban area with the continual economic development, and information of similarity and disparity of their diffusion trajectory and potential space is significant for domestic producers to make and adjust their strategy for more market share. Using Simple Logistic Growth Model and Logistic Growth Model within an Dynamic Carrying Capacity, this research forecasted home appliance's diffusion trajectory of urban area over the period 1981-2006 by data of quantity of per 100 households owned. The analytical results indicate that the second model is a useful one to forecast home appliances' diffusion trajectory because its estimated results are statistical significant and fit the actual situation. Based on the comparison of their diffusion' similarity and disparity, different innovation strategy for producers was suggested.