Predictive analysis network tool for human knowledge elicitation and reasoning

Bayesian networks are useful for predicting future activities on the battlefield. Bayesian mathematics provides the most benefit in JDL fusion levels 2+, i.e. situation, threat, and performance assessment. However, these networks are exceedingly difficult for the average person to develop, much less a soldier in the middle of a war. We are in the process of developing a Bayesian modeling aid that walks the user through each step of the process, supplying help, suggesting alternatives, and translating their model into a human language description that is understandable by non-experts. This effort was originally funded as an AFRL Phase I SBIR (FA8750-06-C-0089) and is currently a Phase II SBIR. In this paper we will walk through the process of developing a Bayesian network and discuss how our tool helps at each step.