The Likelihood of an Unlikely Incident

Accurate identification of hazards, assessment of risk and evaluation of risk controls are essential to moving beyond simple compliance with electrical safety regulations and standards. If hazard identification and risk assessment are not done properly, or at all, the proper and most effective risk controls will often not be applied. This is especially true for electrical incidents as the very low frequency of electrical injuries, compared to all occupational injuries, can blind organizations and individuals to the potential for serious or fatal electrical injuries. Risk can be underestimated and the effectiveness of controls overestimated. Risk determination is a function of incident consequences and the likelihood of ______. "An incident" may not be the right words to fill in the blank. This paper reviews risk assessment literature to find the key word to go into the blank which will lay the foundation for the most effective selection of risk controls to prevent serious injury and fatality.

I. INTRODUCTION

For more than 10 years, there has been increasing emphasis that the application of risk assessment methodologies is needed to further reduce serious injuries and fatalities in the U.S. [1] [2]. In 2010, David Michaels, the assistant director of the U.S. Department of Labor stated that employers needed to move beyond simple compliance with regulations by incorporating risk-based approaches to complement compliance. In 2016, OSHA published recommendations that included a guide for risk assessments [3]. In 2015, NFPA 70E added requirements for performing shock and arc flash risk assessments in task planning and also enhanced Annex F as a resource to help implement electrical hazard risk assessment. The effectiveness of adding risk assessments to complement compliance with the minimum requirements provided in regulations and standards is dependent on the knowledge and competency of individuals performing the risk assessments. One variable impacting the quality of performing risk assessments includes the basic assumptions in defining risk.