A Bayesian Deep Learning-Based Adaptive Wind Farm Power Prediction Method Within the Entire Life Cycle

Accurate wind power prediction (WPP) is crucial to the secure and stable operation of large-scale power systems, and data-driven WPP methods have recently been widely studied and applied. However, existing data-driven methods cannot be applied to new wind farms due to the lack of operational data. This paper presents a novel Bayesian deep learning-based adaptive wind farm power prediction (BDL-AWFPP) method, which is the first time to utilize the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation results as the prior of BDL-based method, thus avoiding the problem that data-driven approaches cannot be applied to newly constructed wind farms. Firstly, a CFD-based wind farm numerical simulation database and a wind turbine power curve database are established to construct a multi-source heterogeneous prior dataset. Then, the BDL-AWFPP model is proposed to utilize the multi-source heterogeneous prior dataset, which can be updated adaptively with newly acquired operational data and saved periodically throughout the life cycle. And an auxiliary aging assessment method for wind turbines is also developed according to the periodically-saved models. Finally, a stochastic variational inference (SVI)-based parameter updating algorithm is derived for the proposed BDL-AWFPP model. Case studies on an actual wind farm validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

I. Introduction

As a non-polluting and widely utilizable form of renewable energy, wind energy has gained worldwide attention in solving the energy crisis and environmental problems [1]. Nowadays, wind power has become an essential component of power grids and performs an instrumental role in power supply. However, with the stochastic nature and limited predictability of wind resources, wind energy emerges as an intermittent power source, presenting a significant challenge for ensuring the secure and stable operation of large-scale power systems. [2]. To cope with uncertainty, WPP has gained increasing attention, which plays an active role in enhancing the operational resilience as well as integrating wind energy with existing power systems [3].