Uncertainty analysis in distribution grids: a literature review and proposed procedure for a quasi-dynamic co-simulation

In Germany, distribution grid operators are pursuing a smartification strategy, supported by the expected rollout of smart meters, to enhance power grid observability and address power quality issues. This paper presents a comprehensive literature review on uncertainty analysis in distribution grids, covering modelling and quantification aspects. It explores research areas such as grid monitoring and the renewable energy integration and offers a comprehensive review of the methodologies employed to tackle various uncertainty sources. Moreover, it identifies research gaps concerning the need for data-driven energy management approaches, underrepresentation of communication and grid event-related sources of uncertainty, and the limited investigation of the cumulative impact of different uncertainty categories on grid performance. Based on the findings from the comprehensive literature review, this paper presents a procedure for a quasi-dynamic co-simulation within a case study for a district low voltage grid. This integral step enhances previous studies, where uncertainties in input data, models and results were not considered. In future studies, it is essential to include and compare prevailing methodologies for each category of uncertainty. In addition, areas that have been underrepresented are worth exploring in depth. This paper thus provides the basis for an expanded, more holistic approach to future studies.