Revenue Distribution Method for Virtual Power Plants Based on Future Earnings Expectations

Virtual power plant is one of the solutions to ensure the safe and stable operation of new power systems under the background of increasing new energy penetration. To promote the long-term development of the virtual power plant, its revenue allocation needs reasonable planning. In this paper, based on the characteristics and demand of new power systems, the market value evaluation index of resources in the future scenario is put forward, which guides the method of revenue allocation for virtual power plants discussed later in this article. While the green certificate market and carbon market are still under construction, the connection with the electricity market and the price mechanism are still under discussion, so the specific value is difficult to quantify. To solve the problem, this paper proposes to adopt the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, use the analytic hierarchy process to qualitatively evaluate the contribution of aggregated resources to the future income of agentless virtual power plant, and use the improved Shapley value method to quantitatively give the allocation plan. It provides a reference for the income distribution of virtual power plants.