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Time Series Lag Models to Analyze Impact of Air Pollution on Daily Incidence of Schizophrenia | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

Time Series Lag Models to Analyze Impact of Air Pollution on Daily Incidence of Schizophrenia


Abstract:

Exposure to pollutants like PM2.5, PM10, CO, Ozone, NO2, and SO2 has been linked with an increased susceptibility to psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, as pe...Show More

Abstract:

Exposure to pollutants like PM2.5, PM10, CO, Ozone, NO2, and SO2 has been linked with an increased susceptibility to psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, as per a few studies. In this study, we use daily pollution data from the Central Pollution Control Board, India, and the number of admissions(NoA) of schizophrenia patients in hospitals in Bangalore City, India, for measuring the daily incidence of schizophrenia. Here, the number of admissions is derived based on entry-exit logs maintained in the hospitals. We examine the association between these two sets of temporal data and forecast the daily occurrence using pollutant data. We evaluate with a time series technique called Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to analyze the lagged association of daily concentration of pollutants on Schizophrenia. We applied the VAR technique to analyze the various interrelationships and lagged impact between hospital logs of schizophrenia and air pollutants. In our statistical analysis, Poisson generalized linear regression in conjunction with the DLNM is utilized to explore the nonlinear and lagged effect. Our study found that the effect of all pollutant values in Bangalore city was statistically significant to schizophrenia admissions in city hospitals. These pollutants have a short-term lag effect of 0 to 5 days(95% CI). The forecasts of schizophrenia admissions from air pollutant models using DLNM outperformed VAR-based MSE and RMSE metrics.
Date of Conference: 27-28 October 2023
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 15 May 2024
ISBN Information:
Conference Location: Bangalore, India

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