Risk assessment of agricultural drought in Inner Mongolia based on information diffusion technique

In recent years, agricultural drought in our country has become more serious year by year and caused huge economic losses. In regard to agricultural drought risk research, the traditional statistics model is not high enough for the precision of risk of Assessment of Agricultural Drought because of lack of enough information of historical disasters recorded. Considering of this limit, the fuzzy risk assessment model is introduced according to the information of diffusion principle. This model has the advantages of being able to optimally solve the assessment problems. With few samples reflect of the fuzzy uncertainty property of risk assessment, this model has been applied to assess the drought index since 1997 in Inner Mongolia and the results indicate that the Agriculture drought happens every year, the drought index is mainly concentrated from 5% to 60%, and the occurrence probability above 20% is 91.67%, which suited the true situations. The results have significant guidance for stopping the drought.