Improve System Performance with Large‐Scale Variable Generation Addition

This chapter presents several methods to predict the balancing reserve needs and their characteristics, required from conventional generation and other resources, and indicate how to obtain these additional flexibility resources, to quantify the flexibility need. It applies a multivariate statistical analysis to provide a concurrent consideration on the capacity, ramping, and ramp duration requirements of the regulation and load following. The chapter presents three innovations to evaluate the flexibilities needed in the presence of variable generation and how to allocate them accordingly. Firstly, a methodology of predicting the impact of wind and solar generation, uninstructed unit deviations, and load uncertainties on the next operating day regulation requirements. Secondly, a methodology and software tool for evaluating the wind and solar generation load uncertainties, as well as unexpected generation outages. Finally, a method to determine the monthly regulation service requirement, which considers the impact of increasing wind generation.