Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning

The essential operation planning function in a control center is to select secure, reliable, and economic operation modes under different operation conditions. The probabilistic risk evaluation of transmission operation modes should be addressed as a part of the operation planning function. The operation measures include load transfers, generation pattern changes, temporary network reconfigurations, and switching actions. This chapter discusses the risk evaluation of operation modes. After a brief introduction, the concept and method of operation risk assessment are described. Two application examples are given to demonstrate the particulars of the presented method. The first example is an actual application of the presented method in operation planning at the control center of a utility to determine the lowest-risk operation mode. The second example provides an insight into the risk evaluation of using the manual calculation method.