AUTOMED: Automated Medical Risk Predictive Modeling on Electronic Health Records

Electronic health records (EHR) have been widely applied to various tasks in the medical domain such as risk predictive modeling, which aims to predict further health conditions by analyzing patients’ historical EHR. Existing work mainly focuses on modeling the sequential and temporal characteristics of EHR data with advanced deep learning techniques. However, the network architectures of these models are all manually designed based on experts’ prior knowledge, which largely impedes non-experts from exploring this task. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a novel automated risk prediction model named AUTOMED to automatically search the optimal model architecture for modeling the complex EHR data and improving the performance of the risk prediction task. In particular, we follow the idea of neural architecture search to design a search space that contains three separate searchable modules. Two of them are used for analyzing sequential and temporal features of EHR data, respectively. The third is to automatically fuse both features together. Besides these three modules, AUTOMED contains an embedding module and a prediction module. All the three searchable modules are jointly optimized in the search stage to derive the optimal model architecture. In such a way, the model design can be automatically achieved with few human interventions. Experimental results on three real-world datasets show that AUTOMED outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in terms of PR-AUC, F1, and Cohen’s Kappa. Moreover, the ablation study shows that AUTOMED can obtain reasonable model architectures and offer useful insights to the future risk prediction model design.