Modelling the impact of land use planning and management practices on the fragmentation of urban landscapes

This paper describes a study that is being carried out by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), in which an urban growth model is being applied to satellite-derived geographic databases of land use and transport networks, in order to assess the likely impact of current spatial plans and policies on future land use development. The study is being carried out for selected study areas in the European Union (EU), as part of the JRC's MOLAND project for monitoring urban and regional land use development in Europe. In this paper, an overview of the MOLAND project is first provided. Then, the urban growth model that has been developed as part of MOLAND is described, and examples of the results of its application are presented. Finally, an analysis that is being carried out as part of MOLAND, of the impact of urban expansion on the spatial structure (i.e. fragmentation) of urban landscapes, is described. Work is continuing on applying the method of fragmentation analysis developed in MOLAND to the output urban landscapes predicted by the urban growth model. Here, the aim is to determine which input parameters to the model are most significant in terms of their effects on the fragmentation of the output urban landscapes. The application of spatial analysis techniques such as fragmentation analysis, to the urban landscapes predicted by the urban growth model, provides spatial planners and policy-makers with a powerful tool for evaluating and comparing alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios, in terms of their likely contribution to the future sustainable development of an urban area of interest.