Forecasting China's Express Delivery based on R using ARIMA Model

In recent years, the express industry has developed rapidly, and the express volume continues to set a new record. Since 2016, China's express volume has ranked first in the world. Facing the rapid growth of China's express industry, this paper used R software to analyze the monthly data of our country's express delivery business volume from 2010 to 2019 through the method of time series analysis, and made use of the automatic order setting function in the R language to construct an ARIMA forecasting model. Finally, the (0, 1, 2) *(2,1,0) [12] model was built. This model was used to predict the total express business in China in the next two years. The prediction results showed that the express volume in China would reach 83.2 billion and 100 billion in 2020 and 2021 respectively, which provide guidance for the better development of China's express industry in the future.