Hybrid Nonlinear and Machine Learning Methods for Analyzing Factors Influencing the Performance of Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure

Strategic maintenance is essential for sustainable road infrastructure development. Accurate estimation of road maintenance effects can support the assessment of maintenance strategies and reasonable allocation of budgets and resources. Road deterioration is affected by sophisticated factors, but accurate investigation of the integrated deterioration factors is limited. This study developed a dynamic trade-off model (DTOM), a hybrid nonlinear and machine learning method, for quantifying temporally varied impacts of factors and examining maintenance effects at the network level. Pavement deterioration factors are classified into three categories: (i) historical observations of roughness, (ii) pavement age, and (iii) traffic, climate and environment factors. Their respective impacts on pavements are estimated using a non-linear least square regression, a joinpoint regression and a random forest model, respectively. Vehicle-based laser scanner monitored high-resolution deterioration data was collected for a large spatial scale road network in Western Australia from 2007 to 2018. Results show that the resurfacing and rehabilitation are essential for strategic reduction of deterioration. Twelve-year maintenance activities reduced the distress of roughness by 7.5% and increased road performance (the percentage of roads with roughness lower than 2.085 IRI) by 14.5% for the whole road network. The DTOM has great potentials in accurately assessing infrastructure maintenance effects and predicting deterioration scenarios.