Development and Research of Multifactor Ensemble Models for Forecasting the Time Series of Electricity Prices

This paper presents the results of the development and study of the effectiveness of the application of multifactor ensemble models for hourly forecasting of electricity prices. Three single and three ensemble models for forecasting the time series of the electricity price, taking into account external factors describing the state of the energy market, were proposed and implemented in the R language in the R-Studio environment. A comparative analysis of the accuracy of the models based on the characteristics of the residuals is carried out. Based on the results of the study, it was concluded that the use of multi-factor ensemble models is promising for solving applied problems of time series forecasting.