Estimation of Congestion From Cellular Walled Gardens Using Passive Measurements

Despite widespread LTE deployment, coverage does not necessarily translate to usable service. Even in well-provisioned urban networks, unusually high usage (such as during a public event or after a natural disaster) can lead to congestion that makes the LTE service difficult, if not impossible, to use, even if the user is solidly within the coverage area. A typical approach to detect and quantify congestion on LTE networks is to secure the cooperation of the network provider for access to internal metrics. An alternative approach is to deploy multiple mobile devices with active subscriptions to each network operator. Both approaches are resource and time intensive. In this work, we propose a novel method to estimate congestion from overloaded LTE networks using only passive measurements, and without requiring provider cooperation. We analyze packet-level traces for four commercial LTE service providers, from several locations during both typical levels of usage and during public events that yield large, dense crowds. This study presents the first look at congestion detection through overload estimation by examining unencrypted broadcast messages. We show that an upsurge in broadcast reject and cell barring messages, leading to overload, can accurately detect an increase in network congestion.