LDM and SHVC Mobile TV Coverage Spillover Into Fixed Rooftop Reception and MVPD Retransmission Consent in the U.S.

By jointly using layered division multiplexing (LDM) and scalable hierarchical video coding (SHVC), ATSC 3.0 will be used to deliver service targeted to both mobile and traditional rooftop antenna receivers. Under this approach, a physical layer pipe (PLP) with robust coded modulation will ensure mobile reception in an area comparable to an ATSC 1.0 TV station's current 15 dB rooftop coverage. However, the same approach will also give rise to increased coverage overlap between TV stations, as the same robust PLP will be decoded by rooftop receivers over a much larger area beyond ATSC 1.0's 15 dB contours. When multiple independently owned TV stations affiliated to the same broadcast programming network overlap the subscriber footprint of a multichannel video program distributor (MVPD) they risk becoming redundant affiliates so the MVPD could pit them against each other in bargaining over lower retransmission consent fees. We calculate the potential increase in rooftop coverage overlap among same-network affiliates of the four largest U.S. over-the-air broadcast programming networks in the U.S. (ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox). We find that as much as 75% of the population will have access to at least one redundant network affiliate, and 60% will have access to two affiliates or more. Under U.S. federal communications commission (FCC) rules, MVPDs can only pit affiliates against each other if the out-of-market TV station is classified by the FCC as significantly viewed (SV) on a per-county basis. Thus, we analyze if an increase in coverage overlap would in fact increase the number of counties where out-of-market stations become SV. We build a predictive random forests model based on current ATSC 1.0 15 dB coverage and the publicly available list of existing SV stations. With an LDM upper layer with a reception threshold of 2 dB -equivalent in bitrate to one full-HD 1080p program-, the model predicts that the number of county/SV station pairs would increase by 100% or more. This suggest that despite all the benefits of the LDM + SHVC approach, and the potential to increase revenues through service to mobile consumers, there is a risk that this approach may negatively affect TV broadcasters' retransmission consent revenues. We discuss a number of potential trade-offs and solutions that can help to mitigate this issue.