Evaluation Forecasting Method of Farmers Terms of Trade Indonesian Agriculture

The agricultural sector is still the most highly employed sector. One indicator that can be used to measure success in the agricultural sector is Farmers Terms of Trade that is usually called Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) in Indonesia. NTP is an indicator that can be used to measure purchasing power of farmers. NTP data is currently released at the beginning of every month based on the previous month's data condition. If NTP data can be predicted earlier, the government can take the right policy in advance. Some methods were used for forecasting data. In this research, we proposed NN, SVM and Multiple Linear Regression methods to forecast NTP. We conclude that Multiple Linear Regression is the best method to forecast NTP with RMSE 0.0009.