A Strategy to Evaluate Solar Power Generation Capability Based on Historical Data

The rapid population of the distributed PV systems brings concerns about system reliability and voltage quality of the power systems. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of those plants to the voltage quality and system reliability of power systems. The paper develops a statistical analysis method by developing metrics for a photovoltaic power plant located in Ankara, Turkey, using power generation data. The generation data involves all uncertainty associated with weather conditions as well as environmental factors. Therefore, it provides a complete statistical analysis of the feasibility of photovoltaic systems at the considered region, and hence its effects to the voltage quality. The study is conducted using historic data gathered from the photovoltaic system located at the Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering of Middle East Technical University. To validate the obtained results, reliability and voltage quality of the generation is investigated in simulation environment. The results are assessed using voltage regulation and flicker as considered metrics.