Behavior of the Iberian Electricity Market Prices in 2016 Considering Increasing Values of Feed-in Generation

This paper results from the research conducted by the first author during the preparation of his MSc Thesis. This research aimed at investigating the impact on the market prices of the Iberian Electricity Market, MIBEL, due to increases of the feed-in generation, as such an increase is expected to occur in the next few years, namely for PV systems. This research was conducted using real market data publicly available in the web site of the Iberian Market Operator for 2016. To estimate this impact, for each trading hour of 2016 we considered new segments at price 0,0 /MWh to translate the priority given to this type of generation. These segments representing the new feed-in generation were then used together with the selling bids submitted by market agents to build the new aggregated selling curve. The new market price was finally obtained as the intersection of the new selling curve with the original buying curve, that was assumed unchanged. The global result indicates that if the feed-in generation increases by 25% regarding the values of 2016, then the average annual market price decreases by 6,57 % regarding the original value of 39,42 €/MWh.