Modeling spacecraft safe mode events

Spacecraft enter a `safe mode' to protect the vehicle when a potentially harmful anomaly occurs. This minimally-functioning state isolates faults, establishes contact with Earth, and orients the vehicle into a power positive attitude until operators intervene. Though `safings' are inherently unpredictable, mission teams build in time margin during operations to determine root causes and restore functionality. Planning and managing this margin is both critical and enabling on mission architectures dependent on near-continuous operability - such as low-thrust electric propulsion missions. To better quantify the occurrences and severity of safe mode anomalies, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has assembled a database of safings from past and active missions. Currently nearly 240 records are captured from 21 beyond-Earth missions, stemming from a collaboration between teams at JPL, Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. This paper discusses the event database, explores a statistical approach in modeling the occurrences and severity of safing events, presents a simulation technique, and details recommendations to benefit future concepts.