Adopting a disaster-management-based contingency model to the problem of ad hoc forecasting: toward information technology-based strategies

Ad hoc forecasts are generally unstructured forecasts that are performed infrequently. Unfortunately, there are no widely accepted formulae for performing such tasks. In this paper, the authors draw parallels between the process of ad hoc forecasting and disaster management, using characteristics of disasters to develop analogous dimensions for ad hoc forecasts, Although a given unit within an organization may not have the opportunity to repeat a particular ad hoc forecast, there are certain similarities among ad hoc forecasts performed by different units within an organization. Mapping ad hoc forecasts along the disaster characteristics brings out these similarities and allows one to identify technology-based strategies for improving ad hoc forecasts. Just as disaster planning draws together people from different units of the organization and creates a common knowledge base, they propose the creation of a common repository of ad hoc forecasts that member organizations can draw upon. This allows organizations that find themselves in need of a particular ad hoc forecast to learn from both the disaster management literature and their own experiences. The presence of the Internet and the World Wide Web provide the infrastructure for creating an inter-organizational information system.