Proposal for a Quantitative Skill Risk Evaluation Method Using Fault Tree Analysis

Project teams must be comprised of skilled individuals; however, project managers often face challenges when assigned team members have a shortage of skills. This potential for a project team's shortage of skill is expressed as project skill risk in this paper. When this occurs, project managers must identify the project team's skill status and take appropriate action. Hence, project managers should understand the skill status of a team and monitor this status in a timely manner, especially for a project that requires expertise. In addition, by understanding skill similarity among team members, project managers can reduce project skill risk. The method proposed in this study creates a systematized quantitative process to evaluate project skill risk in order to generate an objective understanding of team skill status so that decisions can be made proactively during the project planning and execution phases. The proposed method uses a skill risk fault tree and skill risk control chart. The skill risk fault tree is used to evaluate quantitative risk, whereas the skill risk control chart is used to visualize skill risk status. The proposed method incorporates skill similarity to allow for flexibility in project skill risk-related actions. The feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method are then verified through a case study involving an information technology system infrastructure transition project.