Classification of power system security state in presence of fluctuating in-feed in operational planning

Due to political targets, the share of fluctuating in-feed of the total electricity generation is substantial in many countries today. Maybe the most common sources of fluctuating in-feed are wind generation and photovoltaic. These fluctuations cause challenges for transmission system operators to maintain security in the system. In order to study the system security state in operational planning, the transmission system operator has to take the fluctuations into account. This paper presents a method to classify the power system security state in the operational planning in presence of fluctuating in-feed. The method proposed gives the probability for every power system security state at the moment of supply using available production plans and forecasts in operational planning. The method has been illustrated by using one area of the IEEE RTS-96 test system.