Medium term conflict detection for free routing: operational concepts and requirements analysis

Next generation air traffic management systems will provide automated, early detection of flight path separation conflicts for en-route aircraft. A primary objective of these systems is to provide medium term (10-30 min.) lookahead for early detection and resolution of separation conflicts, and for arrival and departure flow management at busy hub airports. This paper focuses on concepts for conflict probe system implementation and on engineering studies to specify CNS/ATM requirements in a Free Routing environment. Results of conflict probe sensitivity studies using Monte-Carte and covariance analysis are discussed. These studies demonstrate the value of modeling path prediction uncertainty and provide a means of allocating navigation, surveillance, and wind forecasting requirements to achieve desired conflict probe performance.