Dynamic modeling of Singapore's urban resource flows: Historical trends and sustainable scenario development

The process of urbanization is one that is inextricably linked with the consumption of material, energy, and water resources. Urban metabolism provides a framework for characterizing the magnitudes of these urban resource requirements by considering the extended analogy of the biological metabolic process. In this study we propose a System Dynamics approach for linking the stocks and flows of urban metabolism with the socioeconomic activities of cities. We also present initial results from its application to the island city-state of Singapore. In the long term, we intend this technique of dynamic urban metabolism to be both descriptive and predictive, the former to better understand different historical modes of urban resource consumption, and the latter to inform strategies for resource efficient urban development in an increasingly resource-scarce world.