Study on the diffusion of update and substitution for CATV in China based on Norton Model

Based on the analysis of Norton Model and its parameter estimation, this paper takes advantage of statistical data for the empirical analysis about diffusion trend of update and substitution for CATV in China. The findings show that compared with Bass Model, Norton Model which describes two generation products-analog TV and digital TV well with substitution curve has higher fitting degree and prediction accuracy. Now, in China, the digital television industry is rapidly developing that the number of users will reach 160 million in the year 2012, and then will exceed 200 million around the year 2015. Those conclusions have high reference value for our government and enterprises in industry chain of digital television to make decisions.