Grey Prediction of Elbow Corrosion on Refinery Equipment

Shengli refinery plant process Middle-east crude oil, the equipment is exposed to wash erosion seriously. The elbow on the entrance of the atmospheric distillation tower top exchangers always leak for eroding. Measured the thickness of elbow by ultrasonic thickness meter every month, find the accumulating generation operator of remnant thickness is quasi smooth sequence, established GM (1, 1 ) model with grey system theory, detected the error with relative error, model passed error check, is eligible. Used full data to create improved GM (1, 1) model to predict elbow‘s thickness in the future. The elbow life can reach to 24 month, but can not reach to 36 month. Select place to measure thickness by experience is out of truth. Use Fluent to emulate fluid field can help to find the place to monitor.