Control of tokamak plasmas. Part II

The time remaining to develop new energy sources and avoid severe energy shortages is growing short. Perhaps the earliest shortage that will occur is in liquid fuels, beginning with the so-called oil peak. Once the peak occurs, oil production can no longer satisfy the world’s demand and, as a result, a growing long term shortage will begin. Although there is disagreement about exactly when this peak will occur, most predictions vary by only a few decades. Some argue that the peak is already upon us [1], [2]. A recent study [3] commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy discusses the multiple problems of converting to alternative liquid fuel sources relative to the time at which the oil peak occurs. A significant conclusion of this study is that unless intense mitigation efforts are undertaken through conservation and commercial deployment of new fuel sources at least ten years in advance, the oil peak will herald a protracted period of severe economic hardship throughout the world. While energy conservation is essential to the required mitigation, increased efficiency alone will not suffice to solve the problem.