Model-based reliability analysis

Testing has typically been a key means of detecting anomalous performance and of providing a foundation for estimating reliability for weapon systems. The objective of model-based reliability analysis (MBRA) is to identify ways to capitalize on the insights gained from physical-response modeling both to supplement the information obtained from testing and to better-understand test results. Five general MBRA processes are identified which can capitalize on physical response modeling results to make both quantitative and qualitative statements about product reliability. A case study that explores 1 of these 5 processes was completed and is described in detail. It had the benefits: MBRA can be used to determine a performance baseline against which current and future test results can be compared; during the design process, MBRA can provide tradeoff studies such that development time and required test assets can be reduced; MBRA can be used to evaluate the impact of production and part changes, as well as aging degradation, if they arise during the product life cycle; and MBRA lays the foundation to evaluate anomalies that are observed in a test program. Typically it has been challenging to determine how anomalous behavior can manifest itself under different-but still valid-conditions. One can use modeling to inject hypothesized behaviors under different conditions and observe the consequences.