Prediction of Treatment Outcome for Autism from Structure of the Brain Based On Sure Independence Screening

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelop-mental disorder, and behavioral treatment interventions have shown promise for young children with ASD. However, there is limited progress in understanding the effect of each type of treatment. In this project, we aim to detect structural changes in the brain after treatment and select structural features associated with treatment outcomes. The difficulty in building large databases of patients who have received specific treatments and the high dimensionality of medical image analysis problems are the challenges in this work. To select predictive features and build accurate models, we use the sure independence screening (SIS) method. SIS is a theoretically and empirically validated method for ultra-high dimensional general linear models, and it achieves both predictive accuracy and correct feature selection by iterative feature selection. Compared with step-wise feature selection methods, SIS removes multiple features in each iteration and is computationally efficient. Compared with other linear models such as elastic-net regression, support vector regression (SVR) and partial least squares regression (PSLR), SIS achieves higher accuracy. We validated the superior performance of SIS in various experiments: First, we extract brain structural features from FreeSurfer, including cortical thickness, surface area, mean curvature and cortical volume. Next, we predict different measures of treatment outcomes based on structural features. We show that SIS achieves the highest correlation between prediction and measurements in all tasks. Furthermore, we report regions selected by SIS as biomarkers for ASD.