Predictors for Clinical Pregnancy in First ART Cycles in Western China

Aim To identify risk factors and predict the success rate of a clinical pregnancy. Methods A retrospective case-control study including 1748 couples with first cycles assisted reproductive technology (ART) of infertile patients in Reproductive Medicine Center of Tangdu hospital from Jan. 2007 through Jan 2010. 46 risk factors (clinical or experimental) associated with clinical pregnancy outcome were chosen to for statistical analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors and evaluate the predictors of success rate of a clinical pregnancy. Results The multivariate analysis identified female age, endometrial thickness, stimulation protocol and semen density before treatments were independent factors associated with clinical pregnancy rate. The area under the ROC curve for a clinical pregnancy was 0.78. The positive and negative predictive values were 0.73 and 0.42, respectively. Conclusion Younger female age, proper endometrial thickness and high semen density before treatments were associated with clinical pregnancy. These findings may assist physicians in predicting the probability the clinical pregnancy in first ART cycle.