Quantifying Risk of Wind Power Ramps in ERCOT

Hourly wind power ramps in ERCOT are studied by applying extreme value theory. Mean excess plot reveals that the tail behavior of large hourly wind power ramps indeed follows a generalized Pareto distribution. The location, shape, and scale parameters of generalized Pareto distribution are then determined by using mean excess plot and the least square technique, from which risk measures including α quantile value at risk and conditional value at risk are calculated.