Abundance Mapping of Commercial Fisheries Production using K-Means and Forecasting Algorithm in Manila Bay, Philippines

Manila Bay is an important aquatic resource in the Philippines. However, the bay’s resources have been overfished, polluted, and damaged in recent decades. In this study, the commercial fish species production data in Manila Bay from 2018-2021 were mapped and clustered using the K-Means technique. Moreover, seasonal production and fish production forecasts were performed using the decomposition time series analysis technique and the ARIMA forecasting algorithm, respectively. The results revealed that the top four abundant species in Manila Bay were large head hairtail Trichiurus sp., Devi’s anchovy Encrasicholina devisi, Squid, and Common ponyfish Leiognathus equula. The abundance of pelagic fish indicates trophic cascades and overfishing in Manila Bay. Meanwhile, the ARIMA forecast results indicate that there are no significant relationships between the production of different species over time. The findings of this study can be used to inform policy decisions regarding closed and open fishing seasons in Manila Bay. To our knowledge, this is the first study to employ ICT-based solutions for fishery management in the Philippines.