On the Impact of Guidance Commands Mismatch in IMM-Based Guidance Modes Identification for Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

This study presents a sensitivity analysis to model mismatch of an interacting multiple model (EMM) filter when used for aircraft guidance modes identification. The mismatch appears in the guidance command parameters (related to the elevator flight surface and engine throttle), which are assumed to be known filter inputs. First, we analyse the filtering sensitivity when the model mismatch is induced by additive Gaussian noise. Three model mismatch scenarios are considered: i) mismatch on the elevator parameter; ii) mismatch on the throttle parameter; and iii) mismatch on both guidance commands. Such sensitivity analysis is conducted for several realistic trajectories. Second, we consider the case where the guidance parameters are estimated. It is found that a guidance command parameters misspedfication clearly affects the IMM performance, therefore such possible mismatch must be taken into account for real-life applicability.