An Estimated Time of Departure Model in the Airspace in China

Accurately predicting the departure time of fights is very significant. It can not only guide passengers to arrange travel time reasonably but also help airlines to allocate resources better. Based on flight wave model, we present a staged model in this paper to predict the departure time of the flight. In this paper we propose a four-stage model. After thoroughly analyzing each factor that affects each guarantee time, we have built new models for each stage. After superimposing the above models, a new Estimated Time of Departure model is obtained. After historical data testing and half-year real-time prediction, the model shows its accuracy and stability. Furthermore, the results of the model have been updated to the App Umetrip [1] for viewing by all travelers in China. The results show that the model is accurate and effective.