Civil Aviation Safety Event Rate Forecasts Based on Time Series Analysis

Civil aviation safety research involves not only an understanding of current situations based on historical data, but also requires precise forecasts of future safety trends. Hence, safety forecasts and alerts are of great significance to improve civil aviation safety programs. This study establishes a time series forecasting model, provides a forecast of industry safety events, and evaluates the reliability of the model. The resulting forecast results meet the requirements needed in such a safety model.