Probabilistic short-circuit analysis: a new approach integrating intermittent power injection

This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic short-circuit analysis based on a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and a hybrid compensation technique to determine the fault currents in an unbalanced distribution network with Distributed Generators (DGs). The probabilistic short-circuit approach proposed considers the main uncertainties inherent to the fault problem, such as the intermittent power production from DG, load demand, fault location, fault type, and fault resistance. In this approach, a phase coordinate efficient method is combined with the Monte Carlo method, giving the fault currents measured efficiently at all system branches and nodes. This type of approach does not consider only extreme values in the fault current determination, allowing a better protection system sizing and a better risk and costs analysis.