Analysis of factors influencing severity of urban expressway accidents in Guangdong province

In order to investigate the influence factors of traffic accidents on urban expressway, this paper selected the severity of traffic accidents as the dependent variable. 15 factors including gender, vehicle type, road conditions and weather were introduced concerning the 4 aspects of road system, i.e. human, vehicle, road and environment. Then 15 indices were classified and assigned by using categorical variables processing method. Based on logistic model, the analysis model of traffic accident severity on urban expressway was built using the data of 1355 traffic accidents between January 2018 and August 2018 on Guangdong urban expressways. The results showed that the model fit well with the data. Three variables including vehicle type, roadside protection and visibility were significantly correlated with the severity of traffic accidents. Considering the type of the vehicle, the probability of serious accident of truck was the highest. The probability of serious accident with roadside protection was 2.093 times higher than that without roadside protection. The probability of serious accident was highest when visibility was within 50m.