Rescaled Range Analysis of Vessel Traffic Flow in the Yangtze River

The inland water transport of China has undergone rapidly developments in the recent years. Accidents which occur occasionally exert more pressure on maritime safety administrations. The characteristics of vessel traffic flow alter with regional economy, waterway classification, etc. The present study focuses on the temporal features of vessel traffic flow in the Yangtze River. The method of rescaled range analysis is introduced to reveal long-term correlation of vessel traffic flow. Three iconic cross sections in the Yangtze River have been selected and case study is thus conducted. The calculated Hurst index is larger than 0.5 for all three sites and falls in a range o\f [0.93, 0.96]. The time series of vessel traffic flow display a long-term dependence, i.e. a potential tendency of increasing with time. The results also provide a guidance for risk assessment of vessel navigation and waterway capacity evaluation in the future.