Data mining and Machine Learning techniques supporting Time-Based Separation concept deployment

The Time-Based Separation (TBS) concept consists in the definition of separation minima for aircraft on the Final approach to a runway based on time intervals instead of distances, as applied in Distance-Based Separation (DBS) operations. TBS allows for dynamic distance separation reductions in strong headwind conditions so as to preserve time spacing across all wind conditions. However, TBS application entails the use of a support tool providing separation distance indicators depending on the applicable time separation minimum, the aircraft speed profile which also depends on the headwind conditions. This paper details two methodologies allowing a system to compute those TBS indicators so as to allow Air Traffic Controllers to accurately and safely deliver the TBS minima using a separation delivery support tool. The first approach is based on “analytical” data mining and modelling whereas the second one is based on a Machine Learning (M/L) procedure. In the framework of the deployment of the TBS concept in Vienna airport (LOWW), those approaches are developed and tested using a database covering one year of traffic and corresponding local meteorological data. The operation of TBS with indicators computed using either approaches leads to substantial diminution of time separations compared to a DBS strategy. However, given the large uncertainties related both to leader and follower aircraft speed profiles, the buffers could be designed only for the most frequent pairs. With the M/L approach (resp. the “analytical” approach), the capacity benefits related to the application of TBS with a separation support tool are of the order of 8% (resp. 2%) in moderate wind conditions, and up to 14% (resp. 10%) in strong wind conditions.